Target: 1272-1263 Since gold has a positive correlation with the EUR/USD, we expect that in June, following the recovery of the currency pair, the precious metal will also show bullish dynamics. At the moment, the RSI indicator is in the oversold zone and is close to leaving this zone. (highlighted in black circle). As soon as indicator leaves it, the probability of growth will increase.
Target: 76-75.40 The end of June turned out to be quite exciting for bulls as for the first time in a long period the OPEC member countries came to an agreement on increasing oil production. The meeting on this issue of the participating countries was held on June 22. However, despite the potential increase in the supply of oil, the price shew steady growth at the end of June. However, the graph shows that the attempt of black gold to return to the highs of May was accompanied by a negative divergence of the RSI indicator, which increases the odds of a bearish scenario. Thus, we expect that oil will fall to the specified targets.
Target: 1.1826-1.1777 The rapid strengthening of the dollar due to favorable economic indicators in the US, as well as the announcement by the ECB of a soft policy of winding up the euro's stimulation starting from 2019 led the currency pair to a sharp fall, which occurred on June 14. The sharp decline is explained by the fact that investors expected a faster and tough folding of the stimulation program. Nevertheless, fundamental growth is now put in EUR, which is why we expect that during July the currency pair will reach the specified values. The odds of this scenario increases against the backdrop of negative price divergence and the RSI indicator.
Target: 63.90-63.60 At the end of July, a triangle where the currency pair was consolidating broke out from the pattern up, as we expected. Usually, after breaking from the patterns, the price returns to the area from which the breakout occurred and reverse. Since the price has already come to this area (purple rectangle), we expect it to reverse and continue growing to the specified values.
Target: 2681-2662 The implementing of trade limitations on goods from the EU, China and Canada is a worrying signal for the US economy, as well as the world. Given that trade limitations tend to respond in a mirror manner from 1 country to another, we expect that the economic confrontation will only increase and that globally the S&P500 index will be falling. We expect that this month the price will drop to the specified values.
Target: 6839-6641 For more than six months Bitcoin can not leave the red zone. Numerous critical reviews of crypto-currencies from world-known experts, as well as tightening of regulation in the leading trading countries, warm up the bearish mood and prevent futures on Bitcoin from moving into the stage of active growth. Nevertheless, there is more and more news that large financial players such as J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs are actively developing strategies for trading futures on cryptocurrency, as well as other altcoins. That is why, we believe that the existing bearish trend will exhaust itself in the foreseeable future. A scenario of at least short-term growth has high odds, since with the making of new lows of Bitcoin, the Relative Strength Indicator shows a negative divergence.
Investment idea for USDRUB 12M forward points
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