Target: 1287-1281 Since gold and the US dollar have a strong negative correlation, we expect the outflow of capital from the precious metal and, consequently, the price drop as latest news enhanced U.S dollar in a strong passion. The chances of the bearish scenario also increase after the price breaks out of the sideways trend of January 10, 2018 (see blue rectangle).
Target: 68.60-68.12 After a long wave of growth, the oil began to show signs of weakness. With the attempts to make new highs, RSI indicator is showing negative divergence (decreasing). Another point is that overall bullish trend since June 2017 is getting slopper (see the breaking of blue trend line and forming new red trend line). When there is decreasing of trend angle, it is saying that buying pressure is getting weaker. Hence, we expect to see a massive pullback The odds of pullback are increased with increasing oil reserves in the US along with the number of Baker Hughs drilling rigs.
Target: 1.21018-1.2140 On the 20th of April 2018 we got a breakout of yearly up-trend (see circled area) started at the beginning of April 2017. The breakout was followed with a dramatic drop in price due to the recent positive news for U.S. Dollar. However, considering the fact that price is falling too sharply (which may be seen by price piercing lower band of Bollinger Bands indicator), we expect a massive pullback to happen to the area of 1.21018-1.2140 (see red channel area). As dollar normally have inverse correlation with commodities, we see the fundamental approval of the pullback as we expect Oil price to fall this month.
Target: 65-65.27 We expect the strong bullish tension for the USD/RUB, as price sharply broke decreasing trend channel (blue rectangle) formed in July 2017. As more sanctions were added to the plenty of businesses in Russia Federation and new packages are likely to be approved, we expect the Rubble to have long-term bearish tensions. Hence, the odds if bullish move fur this currency pair is increasing.
Target: 2510-2491 Currently Index is being consolidated in the descending triangle, which is considered to be a bearish pattern. If price breaks the down side of triangle, we expect bearish tension to be enhanced. Another signs of trend weakness are numerous touches of the 200 (red) EMA (circled areas on the right part of the chart). Notice the last touch of 200 EMA in November 2016 on the left part of the chart. If 50 (blue) EMA will cross 200 EMA, bearish pressure will be increased dramatically. The context of a trade war between USA and China is adding odds of bearish scenario.
Target: 13001-13592 After continuous bearish tension lasted from January to the beginning of April, price now is showing bullish signs: with the attempt to make new lows, MACD indicator is showing negative divergence (growing) and leaving oversold zone. Hence, we expect bullish moves in the nearest future. From fundamental side it should be noted that there are no bad news for Bitcoin in the media. Going further, good news started prevailing over bearish tensions: the volume of trading is increasing after the deadline of Tax declaration in US (17th of April), SEC has stated that at nearest time there is no need for Bitcoin enhanced regulation, International Exchange (ICE) is planning to set Bitcoin SWAPs.
Investment idea for USDRUB 12M forward points
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